Nowruz, a Missing Leader, and Oil at $119

Three weeks into the US-Israeli air campaign, Nowruz arrived Friday to a country whose supreme leader hasn't shown his face. Oil hit $119. Two thousand kilometers east, both sides of a separate war paused for Eid.

These aren't three disconnected events.

The Supreme Leader Who Isn't There

Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's third supreme leader on March 8. He hasn't appeared in public since. Iranian state media released an undated video of him teaching religious students — no timestamp, no live confirmation. Netanyahu said it plainly at a March 19 press conference: "Mojtaba, the replacement ayatollah, has not shown his face. Have you seen him?"

Israeli analysts call him an "empty entity." US intelligence suggests he may have been wounded in an airstrike on March 14 and transferred to Moscow for surgery — a claim Iran's foreign ministry dismissed without elaboration.

The IRGC has pledged "complete obedience" to Mojtaba. Without him visible, operational control appears to rest with the IRGC directly — the same institution Iran's civilian president Pezeshkian can't restrain. When Pezeshkian apologised to Gulf states for Iranian missile strikes last week, the IRGC launched another volley within hours.

Nowruz — the Persian New Year — was supposed to be a moment of symbolic authority for the new supreme leader. A traditional message to the nation. Instead, silence.

The Energy War Nobody Wanted to Start

Brent crude opened this war at $60–70 per barrel. On Thursday it hit $119.13 — up 60–70% in three weeks.

The trigger: Israel struck South Pars on March 18, the gas field that supplies roughly 40% of Iran's domestic gas and drives its LNG exports. Iran retaliated with missiles at Qatar's Ras Laffan terminal — the world's largest LNG export hub — and Saudi energy infrastructure.

Trump called Netanyahu and told him to stop. Netanyahu agreed, framing it as a favour rather than an order. He then told reporters Israel had "acted alone" on South Pars — confirming a US-Israel rift that's been widening for days. Trump has ruled out US ground troops. Netanyahu has said "there must be a ground component" for regime change. Those aren't compatible positions.

Oil settled at $108.65 by Thursday's close — still up 60% since the war began.

Hormuz, formally closed by Iran on Day 3, is running as a managed blockade. About 90 ships cross daily, down from a pre-war average of 100–135. Iran lets vessels linked to China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey pass; Western-flagged commercial traffic remains largely blocked. The IMO called for a humanitarian corridor to evacuate 20,000 seafarers trapped on 2,000 vessels in the Gulf — Iran's cooperation is uncertain.

Iran's speaker Ghalibaf said on Thursday that Hormuz "won't return to its pre-war normal." Tehran is treating passage rights as a post-war bargaining chip — the last real leverage a militarily degraded Iran still holds.

The Two Ceasefires: One Islamic, One Persian

Pakistan and Afghanistan declared an Eid ceasefire at midnight March 19 — brokered by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey — running through midnight March 24. Hours later, the TTP, the militant group Pakistan's entire Afghan operation is meant to dismantle, announced its own three-day truce.

The TTP move is the most significant development on this front since the war began. Pakistan launched its operation to destroy TTP sanctuaries inside Afghanistan. If TTP pauses unilaterally, it signals something — internal pressure, coordination with Afghan Taliban leadership, or a calculation that restraint during Eid helps their diplomatic position.

Nowruz adds a layer. The Persian New Year is celebrated across Afghanistan and Iran. Both Eid and Nowruz are landing this week — an unusual convergence creating cultural pressure for restraint across communities on multiple fronts.

Coincidence or coordination, the effect is the same: the conflict's first genuine pause in 22 days.

Pakistan: The Hinge That May Snap

Pakistan designed its Afghan operation to eliminate TTP. It's ended up in a three-way compounding crisis.

Oil at $108 is existential for Pakistan, not a footnote. Pakistan imports nearly all its oil and LNG. The war has pushed its monthly import bill toward $600 million. Petrol prices rose 20% in early March; further hikes are expected. The IMF program it depends on is under strain. The government ordered 5–30% salary cuts at state-owned enterprises and cancelled the March 23 Republic Day parade, citing the "Gulf oil crisis."

Pakistan's military is meanwhile stretched across 2,500 kilometers of active conflict from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to Balochistan — unable to meaningfully respond to Saudi Arabia's requests for deployment, despite a bilateral defence agreement that implied exactly that. Army Chief Asim Munir told Riyadh privately that Pakistan's forces are tied down along the Afghan frontier.

India is watching. Delhi condemned Pakistan's Afghan strikes and backed Afghan sovereignty. The Taliban is signalling openness to Indian engagement. And Tulsi Gabbard named Pakistan's missiles as a "future threat to the US" in this week's annual threat assessment — inflammatory timing for Islamabad.

Different Wars, One System

Western coverage treats Iran and Pakistan-Afghanistan as separate stories. The pressures move through the same pipes.

Oil rising in Tehran spills directly into Islamabad's fiscal arithmetic. Iran's inability to mediate — Araghchi was brokering Pak-Afghan dialogue in late February before the strikes began — removed the most credible regional off-ramp. Russia is sharing targeting intelligence with Iran against US forces while simultaneously offering to mediate the Pakistan-Afghanistan dispute. China is defending Iran at the UN while trying to broker peace between Islamabad and Kabul to protect its CPEC investment.

None of these actors can fully pursue one goal without compromising another. That's what makes the Eid ceasefire window the only coherent diplomatic opening in weeks.

What Comes Next

Netanyahu's pipeline proposal is the least-discussed but most structurally significant statement of the week. He called for pipelines running from the Arabian Peninsula to Israeli Mediterranean ports — bypassing Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb permanently. That's not a diplomatic proposal. It's a post-war architecture declaration: here's what victory means for Israel.

Iran has said Hormuz won't return to pre-war status regardless. The two statements together define the fight over what peace actually looks like.

The Eid ceasefire runs to March 24. Prediction markets have a ceasefire in the Iran war pencilled for early June. Goldman Sachs analysts see $85 oil in April if things stabilize, $150 as a tail risk if they don't.

Nowruz marks Persian New Year, Year 1404. For the first time since the Islamic Republic was founded, it arrived without a supreme leader willing to be seen.

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Related: Iran's fractured perspectives on the war | Pakistan navigates an impossible strategic position | The Hormuz crisis and global energy