Iran War Day 29: Pentagon Plans Ground Ops, Houthis Fire

The Pentagon's preparing weeks of ground operations inside Iran — Special Operations and conventional infantry raids — the Washington Post reported Saturday. The same day, Yemen's Houthis fired two waves of missiles at Israel, opening a new front that threatens the world's second oil chokepoint. On Monday, four nations gather in Islamabad for the most serious ceasefire push yet — hosted by a country bombing Afghanistan.

Day 29 of the Iran war: the conflict's expanding in every military dimension while the only diplomatic channel struggles to convene.

The war that won't stop growing

3,500 Marines aboard USS Tripoli arrived in the CENTCOM area this week. The Washington Post, citing US officials, reported the Pentagon's drawn up plans for Special Operations raids and conventional infantry operations lasting weeks — if Trump approves.

Vance tried to square the circle in one interview. The war would continue "a little while longer" to ensure Iran is "neutered for a very long time." But also: "We're not interested in being in Iran a year, two years. We're going to be out soon." Both can't be true.

The IDF told reporters it'd complete strikes on "all critical components" of Iran's military-industrial base "within a few days." CENTCOM has struck over 11,000 targets — up from 8,000 last week. Iran's navy is gone: 130 vessels destroyed in what Admiral Brad Cooper called "the largest elimination of a navy since WWII."

But Iran's capacity to hurt isn't gone. A strike on Prince Sultan Air Base wounded 15 US troops, five seriously — the worst breach of US air defences in the war. Bushehr nuclear plant was hit a third time, forcing Russia's Rosatom to emergency-evacuate personnel.

The Houthis change everything

The Houthis didn't just threaten. They fired. Two waves of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones targeted Israeli military sites Saturday, acting "in tandem with Iran and Hezbollah." Both waves were intercepted. The strategic damage is already done.

The Houthis control the coastline near Bab al-Mandab — the narrow passage connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Combined with Iran's Hormuz blockade, two of the world's four critical oil chokepoints are now contested by the same alliance.

What that means for 4 billion people who cook, commute, and heat homes with oil transiting these straits: Saudi Arabia's been rerouting crude through the Red Sea to bypass Hormuz. If the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, that bypass dies. JPMorgan modelled the scenario — Brent at $130 or higher.

The numbers are grim. Only 150 ships transited Hormuz between March 1 and 26, per ABC Australia. Pre-war: roughly 1,350. Dubai's physical oil price — what refineries actually pay — sits at $126 per barrel, 76% above pre-war levels. Brent's headline $112.57 understates the crisis because paper markets haven't caught up to physical delivery costs.

Iran isn't just blocking the strait. It's building a permanent tollbooth. Parliament's drafting legislation to charge $2 million per ship. A senior official declared: "After 47 years, there is a new, de facto sovereign regime in the Strait of Hormuz." Iran exports 1.6 million barrels per day at inflated prices and collects transit fees from friendly nations — profiting from its own blockade while the US lifts sanctions on stranded Iranian crude to ease supply.

CNBC warned stopgap measures — strategic reserve releases, sanctions waivers — lose effectiveness in early-to-mid April. Shell's CEO told investors shortages will reach Europe by then.

Pakistan: mediator, belligerent, beneficiary

Monday's Islamabad summit is the war's most serious diplomatic moment. Foreign ministers from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan meet to push for a ceasefire framework. China's explicitly backed Pakistan's role — Wang Yi called FM Dar on March 27. Both agreed to coordinate on ceasefire, safe shipping, and UN support.

But look at what Pakistan's doing simultaneously.

Bombing Afghanistan. The Eid ceasefire collapsed March 25. Pakistani jets resumed strikes across Panjshir, Kabul, Badakhshan, and Herat. Human Rights Watch confirmed a March 16 strike on Kabul's Omid Addiction Treatment Hospital killed 143 and wounded over 250 — mostly patients. Pakistan tops the 2026 Global Terrorism Index, battling 595 TTP incidents last year.

Serving as a Gulf military participant. Pakistani F-16s are deployed to Saudi Arabia. Iran gave Pakistan safe passage for 20 ships through Hormuz — FM Dar called this a "harbinger of peace."

Hosting THE ceasefire summit while fighting its own war, benefiting from Iranian favour, and serving as a Gulf military ally. India's Jaishankar called it "dalali" — brokerage. India Today called it "the joke of the year." The NYT ran: "India Appears Sidelined as Pakistan Tries to Play Peacemaker."

From Islamabad, every relationship is an asset. From Delhi, it's hypocrisy. From Washington, Pakistan's the only country that can talk to both sides.

How different regions see the same war

The framing gap on day 29 may be the widest yet.

Vance told Americans the war's wrapping up — "weeks not months." The Pentagon told the Post it's preparing weeks of ground ops. CNN calls it the "Iran war." The Guardian calls it the "US-Israel war on Iran." Same conflict, two aggressors, depending on the masthead.

Al Jazeera's death toll tracker: 1,937 Iranians killed, including 210 children, across 20 of Iran's 31 provinces. Farsi-language domestic media reports 92,662 civilian housing units damaged, 1,040 wounded children, 220 women killed. These details are almost entirely absent from English-language coverage, which leads with military targets and strategy.

Press TV amplifies Tucker Carlson and the resignation of counterterrorism adviser Joe Kent, pushing the line that "Israel led the US into war." Iran's running meme campaigns using American cultural references. The White House responded by asking "why is NPR writing puff pieces about Iran's social media?"

In Arabic, the Houthi entry's framed as Islamic solidarity — the resistance axis standing together. In Western outlets: "escalation risk." In Gulf media: alarm. Houthis closing Bab al-Mandab threatens the energy exports keeping Gulf economies alive.

Afghanistan: trapped in a box with no exit

Afghanistan's become the war's invisible casualty. Pakistan bombs from the east. Iran's warzone blocks the west. All eight major border crossings are shut. The Taliban's "pivot west" — rerouting trade through Iran — is dead. Both land trade routes now pass through active conflict zones.

The Taliban ordered domestic media not to report Taliban deaths from Pakistani airstrikes — a censorship directive signalling internal strain. Seventy thousand Afghans who fled to Iran are fleeing back to a country being bombed.

Pakistan — hosting the ceasefire summit tomorrow — resumed forced deportation of Afghan refugees through Torkham the same week.

What to watch in the next 48 hours

Monday's summit tests whether four nations with competing interests can produce a ceasefire framework. Saudi Arabia's pushing the US to escalate while sitting at the peace table. Turkey has its own channel to Tehran. Egypt brings Arab League credibility. Pakistan brings the one thing nobody else has — direct lines to both Washington and Tehran.

If it produces nothing, the next trigger: April 6 — Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz or face strikes on power infrastructure. Iran's promised to destroy Gulf desalination and power plants if hit. Millions could lose clean water as extreme heat season approaches.

Oil markets open Sunday evening in Asia. Traders price in three things: Houthi escalation, ground operations, and the summit's prospects. If Brent breaks $115 Monday, the conversation shifts from war to global recession.

The war entered its fifth week by adding a new belligerent, preparing a ground invasion, and scheduling a peace summit hosted by a country at war. The question isn't whether these contradictions resolve. It's which ones break first.