Day 6: Iran's Assembly of Experts Meets Under Bombardment as Trump Orders Tanker Escorts

Iran's Assembly of Experts convened on Tuesday under active bombardment to begin choosing a new Supreme Leader. Mojtaba Khamenei — the dead leader's 55-year-old son — is the front-runner, according to sources cited by the New York Times. No one in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history has ever tried to pick a Supreme Leader during a war.

That's the political crisis. The military one hasn't slowed down.

Four Fronts, Six Days

The US military confirmed it has struck nearly 2,000 targets in Iran since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. Fifty thousand American troops are now deployed across the region. Two carrier strike groups, 200 fighter aircraft, and long-range bombers are cycling through missions around the clock.

Israel added a new front on Tuesday. IDF ground troops crossed into southern Lebanon — the first incursion since the November 2024 ceasefire collapsed four days ago. The military called it "forward defence." The New York Times reported plans include the option to push deeper. Hezbollah responded with a drone swarm targeting the Ramat David airbase in northern Israel, hitting radar installations and control rooms.

Netanyahu said this "won't be an endless war." The map suggests otherwise. Israel is now conducting air strikes on Iran, ground operations in Lebanon, and defensive operations against incoming missiles — the most kinetically active Israeli military posture since the Yom Kippur War of 1973.

The Succession Scramble

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28 in the opening hours of the US-Israeli strikes. His death created a power vacuum that Iran's establishment is trying to fill while the country burns around them.

The Assembly of Experts — 88 clerics elected to choose the Supreme Leader — managed to convene on Tuesday. According to the Times, Mojtaba Khamenei has IRGC backing and is considered the clearest path to continuity. His competitors include Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the revolution's founder, and Chief Justice Mohseni-Ejei, who sits on the Interim Leadership Council already running day-to-day affairs.

RAND analysts note a complication: January 2026's protests, which drew millions, had already cracked the establishment's consensus. Khamenei himself had elevated Ali Larijani — a former IRGC general — to effectively run the country in the weeks before his death. Whether the Assembly picks a Supreme Leader or opts for a leadership council is genuinely unclear.

Foreign Minister Araghchi's public statements suggest IRGC regional commanders may already be operating under pre-authorised strike authority. If the command structure is fragmented, individual commanders start making tactical calls without central coordination. That's how wars spiral.

Iran's Retaliation Is Building the Coalition Against It

Iran struck every Gulf Cooperation Council country. UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman — all hit by Iranian missiles or drones in retaliation. But the blowback is devastating Tehran's remaining relationships, not Washington's.

Qatar received no warning before Iranian missiles struck near its LNG facilities. QatarEnergy halted all production at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed — roughly 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas, offline in a single decision. Dutch TTF gas prices jumped 50%, the largest single-session spike since the 2022 energy crisis. European and Asian buyers are scrambling.

The US consulate in Dubai took a drone hit on Tuesday. Fragments from Iranian missile interceptions damaged the Burj Al Arab and Fairmont The Palm. The Stimson Center estimates the UAE spent approximately $2 billion on interceptions in four days.

Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery — processing 550,000 barrels per day — shut down after drone shrapnel hit the facility. Loadings stopped.

Each Iranian strike on Gulf soil pushes those governments closer to joining the anti-Iran coalition. The countries Iran needs most for mediation are precisely the ones it's bombing. The 2023 China-brokered detente between Riyadh and Tehran is dead.

Hormuz: Closed in Practice, Contested in Theory

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is down 80%. At least four tankers have been struck. Maersk paused all sailings through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb — meaning the world's two most important maritime chokepoints are disrupted simultaneously.

Trump's response on Tuesday: the US Navy will escort commercial tankers through Hormuz, and the Development Finance Corporation will offer government-backed insurance at "very reasonable" rates. It's an attempt to decouple the oil market from the war — keep crude flowing while bombs keep falling.

It hasn't worked yet. Brent crude hit $83.44 per barrel in Asian trading on March 4, up 15% since the conflict began. Goldman Sachs's worst-case scenario puts oil at $110 if Hormuz stays functionally closed. No Navy escort convoy has attempted transit.

The Pakistan Squeeze Deepens

Across Iran's eastern border, Pakistan is fighting its own war — and the two conflicts are compounding.

Pakistan's KSE-100 index partially recovered on Tuesday, clawing back 2,098 points after Monday's historic 16,089-point crash. But the rebound was shaky. Investors know what's coming: every dollar Brent crude rises hits Pakistan's import bill directly. The country imports most of its oil and gas from the Middle East.

Iran previously served as a mediator between Pakistan and Afghanistan. That diplomatic channel is gone. Pakistan's defence minister confirmed "no talks, no dialogue, no negotiation" with the Taliban. Pakistani aircraft struck Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktika overnight. The Taliban fired anti-aircraft guns at Pakistani jets over their own capital.

The humanitarian toll connects both theatres. Over 86,000 Afghans have returned from Iran so far in 2026 — pushed out by war — into a country that's itself under bombardment from Pakistan. Double displacement. Afghan refugees in Pakistan face mass arrests and forced deportation. Hotels refuse Afghan passports.

India's Air Force announced a major exercise near the Pakistani border from March 5-12. The timing speaks for itself.

Congress Stirs

In Washington, the war powers debate is heating up. Senators are preparing a vote on Trump's military authority. The Boston Globe noted that strikes were launched "without formal declaration or address to the nation." One senator questioned whether intelligence actually showed Iran was close to a nuclear weapon — the stated justification for the campaign.

Secretary of State Rubio said the US is "ahead of schedule" and would "unleash" further strikes in the coming days. If the campaign extends beyond weeks, Congress must formally authorise it under the War Powers Act. Whether that constraint holds is the most consequential domestic question of the conflict.

What's Actually at Stake

Six US service members are dead. Iran's Red Crescent reports 787 killed, with separate estimates putting the military toll at 1,300. At least 176 children are among the civilian dead.

The Assembly of Experts is picking a wartime leader with no precedent to guide them. IRGC commanders may already be freelancing. Israel's opened a ground front in Lebanon while bombing Iran from the air. Twenty percent of the world's LNG is offline. Both of the planet's most critical shipping lanes are disrupted.

The question on Day 1 was whether this would be a limited strike. By Day 6, it's clear: this is a regional war with at least four active fronts, fragmenting command structures, and economic consequences that reach from Islamabad to Amsterdam.

Nobody has articulated what "winning" looks like. That's the part that should worry everyone most.