Trump Just Lifted Sanctions on Russia to Fix the Oil Crisis. Russia Caused the Oil Crisis.

Thursday night, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Russian oil.

Not permanently. Just for 30 days. And only on crude already floating at sea. But still—sanctions that took years to build, gone with a Treasury Department press release.

The reason? Oil hit $119 Monday. Markets panicked. The Iran war choked the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf producers cut shipments. Prices spiked 35% in a week.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said freeing Russian oil could add "hundreds of millions of barrels" to global markets.

Here's what he didn't say: Russia's already made €6 billion from the chaos.

The Unintended Winner

Two weeks ago, the US and Israel bombed Iran. Russia wasn't involved. Didn't plan it. Didn't ask for it.

But oil prices doubled. And Russia sells oil.

Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air: Russia earned €6 billion from fossil fuel exports since the war started. March alone added an extra €672 million — a 14% jump from February.

Alexander Kirk, a sanctions campaigner at Urgewald, put it bluntly: "When markets panic, authoritarian exporters cash in."

Oil and gas fund about 20% of Russia's federal budget. Before the Iran war, those revenues had hit their lowest since 2022. Sanctions were working. US pressure on India was cutting Russian sales.

Then Hormuz got mined. Russia's getting paid again.

Europe's Not Happy

Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU's Economy Commissioner, called Trump's move "self-defeating" on Tuesday.

"It would reinforce Russia's capacity to wage war, undermining Ukraine, undermining our support for Ukraine and also undermining the goals which the US and Israel are trying to reach in Iran."

Translation: you're fighting one war while funding the opponent in another.

The EU's been holding the line on Russia sanctions for four years. No exemptions. No temporary relief. Even Hungary's demands to lift energy sanctions got blocked.

Brussels was pushing for tougher measures—a full ban on maritime services for Russian oil tankers, designed to replace the G7 price cap.

Then Trump made one phone call with Putin on Monday. By Thursday night, Russian oil was unsanctioned.

The Europeans see the contradiction. Isaac Levi, an analyst at CREA: "If sanctions exemptions are granted, this will narrow the price discount and increase Russia's oil export earnings."

Russian oil traded at a steep discount because of sanctions. Now that gap closes. Even if prices fall, Russia makes more per barrel.

The Numbers Don't Add Up

The temporary waiver runs through April 11. It only applies to Russian crude loaded on ships as of March 12.

Bessent says it'll stabilize markets. Oil barely moved after the announcement. Still hovering around $100.

Before the Iran war, Russian crude revenues had dropped — India, under US pressure, cut purchases. February 2026 was Russia's worst oil month since Ukraine.

Then Hormuz got mined. Gulf producers stopped shipping. Asia needed oil. Russia had oil. Prices went up.

Now the US is easing the one thing that worked — sanctions — to fix a crisis Russia's profiting from.

What Happens Next

The 30-day waiver expires April 11. Trump hasn't said whether it'll be extended.

Hungary's Viktor Orbán called for lifting all Russian energy sanctions Monday. Putin said Russia's "ready" to resume fossil fuel exports to Europe, "free from political pressures."

Europe's not budging. Dombrovskis says the EU will "stay the course" on maximum pressure.

But the gap's widening. The US just showed sanctions can disappear overnight when politically convenient. Europe's betting they won't.

Oil markets aren't betting on anything. Prices are still near $100. The Strait's still disrupted. Russian tankers are still floating. And Putin's war chest just got €6 billion heavier.

The Iran war's barely two weeks old. Russia didn't start it. But it's winning.