China's Energy Coercion Across East Asia

China is running a three-track energy coercion campaign across East Asia during the Hormuz crisis: an official offer of "energy security" to Taiwan in exchange for reunification, a coordinated disinformation blitz claiming Taiwan's LNG runs out in 11 days, and reopened oil exploration talks with the Philippines — the first in four years. No major outlet has connected all three as one strategy. The Diplomat reports Iran still allows Chinese crude through Hormuz, giving Beijing the leverage to make these offers.

Beijing offered Taiwan a deal this month that didn't involve a single warplane.

If Taiwan agreed to "peaceful reunification," China would "provide Taiwan compatriots with stable and reliable energy and resource security, so that they may live better lives." That's not a leaked memo. It's an official statement, reported by ISW's China-Taiwan Update on March 20 and analysed by New Bloom Magazine five days later. DW News covered it as a standalone curiosity. Most Western outlets didn't cover it at all.

The offer landed while the Hormuz crisis is cutting energy supplies to every major Asian economy — except China's.

The Douyin blitz

The same week Beijing made its offer, AFP fact-checkers found around two dozen Douyin posts from China-based accounts pushing a coordinated narrative: Taiwan will run out of LNG within 11 days. Blackouts are coming. The government can't protect you.

The Taipei Times reported on March 27 that Taiwanese security officials identified AI-generated content on YouTube and TikTok pushing "a consistent narrative" designed to make people in Taiwan "feel concerned about the government, or keep imagining that if a blockade were to happen one day, we would lose confidence in energy."

Some posts criticised Taiwan's decision to shut down its last nuclear reactor. Others promoted Beijing's reunification offer as the solution.

Taiwan's Economic Affairs Minister Kung Ming-hsin responded on Facebook: "They claimed that we would run out of gas — that is simply impossible." Taiwan gets about one-third of its LNG from Qatar via Hormuz. The other two-thirds comes from Russia, Australia, and the US.

But the point of the disinformation wasn't accuracy. It was to make the reunification offer feel like rescue rather than coercion.

The Manila track

Two thousand kilometres south, a different version of the same strategy was playing out.

On March 27-28, Philippine and Chinese delegations met in Quanzhou for back-to-back bilateral consultations — the 24th Foreign Ministry Consultations and the 11th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea. The Philippine delegation was led by Undersecretary Leo Herrera-Lim. China sent Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong.

For the first time in nearly four years, they discussed "initial exchanges on potential oil and gas cooperation" in the South China Sea. Manila had declared a state of national energy emergency on March 24, citing Hormuz disruptions.

Philippine media framed the talks as a lifeline. Philstar's March 30 headline: "Philippines, China begin talks on oil, gas exploration." GMA News led with "cooperation talks resume amid ongoing oil crisis." The framing was hope — Manila finding a way out of its energy emergency.

Reuters covered the same meeting as diplomatic process. Bloomberg emphasised that China "urged Philippines to help stabilize ties." No major outlet asked the question that connects Quanzhou to Taipei: why is Beijing reopening energy talks with two neighbours simultaneously?

Why China isn't panicking

The Diplomat published a piece on March 26 that answers this: "The Strait of Hormuz Is Burning, But China Is Not Panicking." Tehran continues to allow crude oil destined for China through the waterway. Asia Times reported that Iran is requiring Chinese yuan for Hormuz transits — "one of the most consequential financial propositions in the post-Bretton Woods era."

China stockpiled oil before the war began. Iran is keeping China's supply flowing. That gives Beijing something no other Asian power has right now: energy to spare.

Japan imports 90% of its oil through Hormuz and can't get enough. South Korea declared a supplementary budget. The Philippines has 45 days of fuel left. Taiwan is fighting disinformation about its reserves.

China is offering all of them help — on its terms.

Three tracks, one pattern

This is what China's cognitive warfare infrastructure looks like when it has material leverage to work with.

Track one: the official offer. Reunification equals energy security. Reported in Chinese state media and picked up by ISW. Covered by DW and New Bloom as an isolated item.

Track two: the information campaign. Dozens of coordinated Douyin posts, AI-generated YouTube and TikTok content, all pushing the same script. Covered by AFP Fact Check and Taipei Times. Not connected to track one in any outlet.

Track three: the diplomatic play. Oil exploration talks with the Philippines, energy cooperation discussions, coast guard communication. Covered by Reuters, Bloomberg, Philstar. Not connected to tracks one or two in any outlet.

Each outlet covers its piece. Taipei Times reports the disinformation. Philstar reports the oil talks. DW reports the reunification offer. Nobody runs the story that connects all three because no single beat — Taiwan security, South China Sea diplomacy, energy markets — spans them.

The pattern is the story. China isn't firing missiles or locking radar this week. It's offering fuel. And the name for that — energy diplomacy or energy coercion — depends entirely on which capital you're sitting in and how many days of fuel you have left.