Iran Struck Back in Ten Minutes. Now Nobody Knows How to Stop It.
US and Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites. Iran fired missiles at US bases in five countries within minutes. The cycle everyone warned about is running.
The missiles started flying back ten minutes after the first wave hit.
US and Israeli forces struck hundreds of targets across Iran early Friday morning — nuclear facilities, weapons depots, the compound where Supreme Leader Khamenei sleeps. Iran launched retaliatory missiles at US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia before the smoke cleared in Tehran.
This is the cycle everyone said had to be avoided. It's here.
What Hit Where
Operation Roaring Lion (Israel's name) and Operation Epic Fury (America's) targeted Iran's nuclear program and military infrastructure. Isfahan, Qom, Tehran, Karaj — all hit. Satellite imagery shows Khamenei's compound badly damaged. Pezeshkian's office was struck too. He's safe, according to Iranian state TV.
Iran says 201 people died, including 85 in a girls' school in Minab, southern Iran.
Ten minutes later, Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired back. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Al Dhafra in the UAE. Al Salem in Kuwait. The Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Missiles toward Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia.
Gulf Arab states scrambled to intercept. They'd told the US they wouldn't allow their airspace to be used for strikes on Iran. Iran targeted them anyway.
Israel reports 28 civilians and one off-duty soldier killed. 3,238 injured.
No US casualties so far.
The Nuclear Context
Iran's been enriching uranium to 60% — near weapons-grade. (90% is the threshold; the JCPOA deal capped it at 3.67%.) Iran blew past that limit after Trump pulled out in 2018. Geneva talks collapsed this week. Nine hours, no deal.
Trump's justification: Iran revived its weapons program. Israeli intelligence backs that claim. Iran says it's peaceful energy. Always has been.
The US hit Iran's nuclear sites once before — June 2025. Trump said the program was "obliterated." IAEA said it was degraded, not destroyed. Iran rebuilt.
This time the strikes were bigger. Trump announced "major combat operations" and called for regime change.
The Military Buildup
This didn't come from nowhere.
Two carrier strike groups sit in the region — USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, USS Ford in the Mediterranean. Thirteen destroyers. B-52 bombers at Al-Udeid in Qatar. It's the biggest US military buildup in the Middle East since Iraq.
Israel's been hitting Iranian proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq for months. Iran's been arming Hezbollah and the Houthis. Between them sits the Strait of Hormuz — one-fifth of the world's oil passes through it daily.
Three Paths From Here
Escalation. Iran hits US bases again. Israel hits back harder. The US launches a second wave. Oil spikes. The region fragments. This is how wars start — one retaliation at a time. Stalemate. Both sides claim victory and stop. Unlikely. Trump's called for regime change. Iran can't back down after being hit this hard without losing domestic legitimacy. Khamenei (if he's alive) won't negotiate from weakness. Diplomacy. Oman's been mediating. Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said Thursday there'd been "real progress" in Geneva. Vienna talks are scheduled next week. But talks are one thing. Stopping missiles mid-flight is another.The gap between negotiation and war closed to ten minutes.
What's at Stake
If Iran builds a nuke, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt will want their own. The Middle East becomes a nuclear-armed powder keg.
If the US and Israel destroy Iran's program by force, Iran's 85 million people rally behind a government many of them oppose. The precedent: step out of line, get bombed.
If Hormuz gets disrupted, global energy prices spike. Inflation returns. Economic chaos follows.
None of this is hypothetical anymore.
The Gulf States' Dilemma
Five countries woke up Friday to Iranian missiles — despite refusing to help the US strike Iran.
Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia all told the US: don't use our airspace. Iran targeted them anyway. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry said Iran knew the Kingdom wouldn't allow its territory to be used. "These attacks cannot be justified under any pretext."
Iran's message: hosting US bases makes you a target. Cooperation or not.
The Gulf states are stuck. Protect American assets on their soil, or stay neutral and get hit anyway. There's no safe middle ground when missiles are flying.
What Happens Next
Trump's threatened more strikes if Iran retaliates again. Iran's already retaliated. The cycle's running.
Israel's Channel 12 reported Friday night that "the assessment that Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed is strengthening." Iran hasn't confirmed or denied. If he's dead, the power vacuum could collapse the government — or trigger a succession crisis.
If he's alive, he has to respond — or look weak.
Vienna talks are still on for next week. Negotiators will sit in the same room they sat in Thursday — trying to agree on enrichment levels while missiles fly outside.
Wars don't announce themselves anymore. They just start. One ten-minute retaliation at a time.
Keep Reading
Caught in the Crossfire: How Five Gulf States Are Responding to Iran's Missiles on Their Soil
UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait were hit by Iranian retaliatory strikes targeting US bases. Each country is responding differently — and what they do next could reshape the Middle East.
Operation Epic Fury: The Day the US and Israel Struck Iran — and Iran Struck Back
On February 28, the US and Israel launched the largest joint military operation in decades against Iran. Tehran retaliated across the Gulf within hours. Here's what happened, who's affected, and what comes next.
Iran's Supreme Leader Has Not Been Seen Since the Strikes Began. Nobody Can Prove He's Alive.
Israel says Khamenei was killed in the opening salvo of Operation Roaring Lion. Iran says he's fine. Neither side has shown proof. Here's what we actually know.
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