Iran War Ground Ops Planned as Houthis Join Fight

The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations inside Iran using Special Operations and conventional infantry, the Washington Post reported Saturday. The same day, Yemen's Houthis fired two waves of missiles and drones at Israel — opening a new front that puts the world's second oil chokepoint at risk. And on Monday, four nations will gather in Islamabad for the most serious ceasefire push yet, hosted by a country that's simultaneously bombing Afghanistan.

Day 29 of the Iran war brought the conflict's sharpest contradiction: the war is expanding in every military dimension while the only diplomatic channel struggles to convene.

The war that won't stop growing

Three thousand five hundred Marines aboard USS Tripoli arrived in the CENTCOM area of operations this week. The Washington Post, citing US officials, reported Saturday that the Pentagon has drawn up plans for raids by Special Operations forces and conventional infantry — operations that could last weeks if Trump approves them.

Vice President Vance tried to square the circle in a single interview. The war would continue "a little while longer" to ensure Iran is "neutered for a very long time." But also: "We are not interested in being in Iran a year, two years. We're going to be out soon." Both sentences can't be true.

The IDF, meanwhile, told reporters it would complete strikes on "all critical components" of Iran's military-industrial base "within a few days." CENTCOM has now struck over 11,000 targets — up from 8,000 last week. Iran's navy is gone: 130 vessels destroyed in what CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper called "the largest elimination of a navy since WWII."

But Iran's capacity to hurt its enemies isn't gone. A strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia wounded 15 US troops, five seriously — the most damaging breach of US air defences in the war. And Bushehr nuclear power plant was hit for a third time, prompting Russia's Rosatom to emergency-evacuate its personnel.

The Houthis change everything

Yemen's Houthis didn't just threaten. They fired. Two waves of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones targeted Israeli military sites on Saturday, acting "in tandem with Iran and Hezbollah," according to their military spokesperson. Both waves were intercepted, but the strategic damage is already done.

The Houthis control the coastline near the Bab al-Mandab strait — the narrow passage connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Combined with Iran's Hormuz blockade, two of the world's four critical oil chokepoints are now contested by the same alliance.

Here's what that means for the 4 billion people who cook, commute, and heat their homes with oil that transits these straits: Saudi Arabia has been rerouting crude through the Red Sea to bypass Hormuz. If the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, that bypass route dies. JPMorgan has modelled the scenario — Brent at $130 or higher.

The numbers are already grim. Only 150 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and 26, according to ABC Australia's investigation. Pre-war, that number would have been roughly 1,350. Dubai's physical oil price — what refineries actually pay — sits at $126 per barrel, 76% above pre-war levels. The headline Brent figure of $112.57 understates the crisis because paper markets haven't caught up to physical delivery costs.

Iran isn't just blocking the strait. It's building a permanent tollbooth. Parliament is drafting legislation to charge $2 million per ship, and a senior official declared that "after 47 years, there is a new, de facto sovereign regime in the Strait of Hormuz." Iran is also exporting 1.6 million barrels per day at inflated prices and collecting transit fees from friendly nations — profiting from its own blockade while the US lifts sanctions on stranded Iranian crude to ease global supply.

CNBC analysts warned that stopgap measures — strategic reserve releases, sanctions waivers — lose effectiveness in early-to-mid April. Shell's CEO has already told investors that shortages will reach Europe by then.

Pakistan: mediator, belligerent, beneficiary

Monday's Islamabad summit is the war's most serious diplomatic moment. Foreign ministers from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan will meet to push for a ceasefire framework. China has explicitly backed Pakistan's role — Wang Yi called FM Dar on March 27, and both agreed to work together on ceasefire, safe shipping, and UN support.

But look at what Pakistan is doing simultaneously.

It's bombing Afghanistan. The Eid ceasefire collapsed on March 25, and Pakistani jets resumed strikes across Panjshir, Kabul, Badakhshan, and Herat. Human Rights Watch confirmed that a March 16 strike on Kabul's Omid Addiction Treatment Hospital killed 143 people and wounded over 250 — mostly patients. Pakistan is the world's number one on the 2026 Global Terrorism Index, battling 595 TTP incidents last year alone.

It's a military participant in Gulf security. Pakistani F-16s are deployed to Saudi Arabia. Iran gave Pakistan safe passage for 20 ships through Hormuz — FM Dar called this a "harbinger of peace." Thailand struck a similar deal.

Pakistan is hosting THE ceasefire summit while fighting its own war, benefiting from Iranian favour, and serving as a de facto Gulf military ally. India's External Affairs Minister Jaishankar called it "dalali" — brokerage. India Today called it "the joke of the year." The New York Times ran a headline: "India Appears Sidelined as Pakistan Tries to Play Peacemaker."

Whether the contradictions are bugs or features depends on your vantage point. From Islamabad, every relationship is leverage. From Delhi, it's hypocrisy. From Washington, Pakistan is the only country that can talk to both sides.

How different regions see the same war

The framing gap on day 29 may be the widest yet.

Vance told American audiences the war is wrapping up — "weeks not months." The Pentagon told the Washington Post it's preparing weeks of ground operations. CNN calls it the "Iran war." The Guardian calls it the "US-Israel war on Iran." Same conflict, two different aggressors, depending which masthead you read.

Al Jazeera's death toll tracker shows 1,937 Iranians killed — a figure that includes 210 children and casualties across 20 of Iran's 31 provinces. Iran's domestic media, in Farsi, reports 92,662 civilian housing units damaged, 1,040 wounded children, and 220 women killed. These granular details are almost entirely absent from English-language coverage, which leads with military targets and strategic implications.

Press TV, Iran's English-language outlet, amplifies Tucker Carlson and the resignation of counterterrorism adviser Joe Kent, pushing the narrative that "Israel led the US into war." Iran is running meme campaigns using American cultural references — and the White House responded not by addressing the claims but by asking "why is NPR writing puff pieces about Iran's social media?"

Meanwhile, in Arabic, the Houthi entry is framed as Islamic solidarity — the resistance axis standing together. In Western outlets, it's "escalation risk" and "war expanding." In Gulf media, it's alarm: Houthis closing Bab al-Mandab threatens the very energy exports keeping Gulf economies alive.

Afghanistan: trapped in a box with no exit

Afghanistan has become the war's invisible casualty. Pakistan bombs from the east. Iran's warzone blocks the west. All eight major border crossings are shut. The Taliban's "pivot west" — rerouting trade through Iran — is dead. Both of Afghanistan's land trade routes now pass through active conflict zones.

The Taliban has ordered domestic media not to report Taliban deaths from Pakistani airstrikes — a censorship directive that signals internal strain. Seventy thousand Afghans who fled to Iran are now fleeing back to a country being bombed.

And Pakistan, which hosts this crisis's most important ceasefire summit tomorrow, resumed forced deportation of Afghan refugees through Torkham the same week.

What to watch in the next 48 hours

The Islamabad summit on Monday will test whether four nations with competing interests can produce a ceasefire framework. Saudi Arabia is simultaneously pushing the US to escalate and sitting at the peace table. Turkey has its own diplomatic channel to Tehran. Egypt brings Arab League credibility. Pakistan brings the one thing nobody else has — direct communication lines to both Washington and Tehran.

If the summit produces nothing, the next trigger is April 6 — Trump's extended deadline for Iran to fully reopen Hormuz or face strikes on power infrastructure. Iran has promised to destroy Gulf desalination and power plants if hit, potentially leaving millions without clean water as extreme heat season approaches.

Oil markets open Sunday evening in Asia. Traders will price in three things: Houthi escalation, ground operations reporting, and the summit's prospects. If Brent breaks $115 on Monday, the conversation shifts from war to global recession.

The war entered its fifth week by adding a new belligerent, preparing a ground invasion, and scheduling a peace summit hosted by a country at war. The question isn't whether these contradictions will resolve. It's which ones break first — and who's standing in the blast radius when they do.