Three Wars, One Crisis: How Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan Became a Single Conflict

Afghanistan's Air Force struck Pakistani military bases on Monday, hitting Nur Khan Airbase in Rawalpindi and the 12th Corps headquarters in Quetta. Afghanistan's Defence Ministry claimed 32 Pakistani soldiers killed. Hours earlier, Hezbollah fired precision rockets and drone swarms at an Israeli missile defence site south of Haifa. And across the Gulf, Brent crude surged 13% to $82 a barrel as 150-plus tankers sat anchored outside a Strait of Hormuz that Iran has effectively shut down.

Three theatres. One week. The connections between them explain why this is more dangerous than any single headline suggests.

The chain reaction

Start with a timeline. February 28: the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Khamenei died. Seven senior military commanders with him. Iran retaliated across the Gulf — missiles hitting Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Bahrain. Five dead, 120 injured.

Then the dominoes. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi had been mediating between Pakistan and the Taliban. He'd invoked Ramadan solidarity, urged dialogue. That channel evaporated overnight. Iran is now fighting to survive.

Pakistan declared "open war" with Afghanistan on February 22. By March 1, its jets bombed Kabul and Bagram. On March 2, Afghanistan hit back — drone strikes on Rawalpindi, deep inside Pakistan. Pakistan's PM spokesman: "There won't be any talks. There's no dialogue. There's no negotiation."

Iran's mediator is gone. Saudi Arabia is distracted by Gulf defence. China offers rhetoric. Nobody's brokering peace.

Hezbollah breaks the seal

Monday's Hezbollah strikes on northern Israel transformed the conflict's geometry. The group said it was avenging Khamenei's death. Israel responded with airstrikes across Lebanon, including Beirut's Dahiya suburb. Mass evacuations followed in southern Lebanon.

This matters beyond the immediate violence. Iran's "ring of fire" — proxy forces built to activate if Tehran came under attack — is working even with Khamenei dead and the IRGC degraded. Hezbollah didn't need orders. It acted on its own logic.

For Israel, it's a two-front war. For the region, the conflict can't be contained no matter how precise the American and Israeli strikes claim to be.

The oil chokepoint

Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil. It's effectively closed. IRGC forces claimed three UK/US tankers hit near the strait Monday. The UK Maritime Trade Operations office confirmed four incidents — two vessels struck, one near-miss, one crew evacuated.

Maersk paused all sailings through both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb — the Red Sea chokepoint already hit by Houthi attacks. The entire Middle East maritime corridor is compromised. Ships reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks and cost.

Brent settled around $76-80 after spiking to $82. Goldman Sachs projects $110 if the closure holds. OPEC+ announced a 206,000 barrel-per-day increase. Analysts doubt it's enough.

Pakistan's impossible position

Pakistan is the hinge of this crisis — the country where all three conflicts converge.

Its western border is a war zone. Afghan drone strikes hit Rawalpindi, near the capital. Pakistan claims 400-plus Taliban fighters killed. Afghanistan says 52 of 78 dead were civilians — mostly women and children. Eleven children died in a single Nangarhar strike.

Pakistan imports most of its oil through routes now threatened by Hormuz. Dawn called it "Pakistan's biggest economic risk." Edible oil alone cost $3.7 billion in FY25. Analysts warn of fuel hikes and an inflationary spiral echoing the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock.

The BLA attacked Gwadar port last week — threatening China's Belt and Road corridor. India condemned Pakistan's Afghan strikes and backed Afghan sovereignty. India's own Chabahar port investment in Iran is also at risk.

Pakistan can't fight on its western border, absorb an oil shock, and keep its eastern border calm. Something has to give.

The succession question

Iran's Assembly of Experts must pick a new Supreme Leader. Three candidates: hardliner Mohseni-Eje'i, Asghar Hejazi, and Hassan Khomeini — the founder's grandson. Mojtaba Khamenei, the dead leader's son, is also possible.

An interim council is running things. Larijani and Parliament Speaker Qalibaf direct defence decisions. Qalibaf appeared on TV Monday: Trump and Netanyahu "crossed a red line and will pay for it."

Who emerges determines everything. A hardliner means escalation, deeper proxy activation, no off-ramp. Hassan Khomeini could open negotiations — but would face massive pressure not to appear weak under American bombs.

Araghchi told Al Jazeera the selection should be complete "within days." Getting 88 Assembly members to agree during an active war won't be simple.

How different regions see this

The framing gaps are stark. Western outlets lead with "strikes on Iran" and the nuclear threat justification. CNN and the NYT frame Trump's four-week timeline as strategy. The Minab school strike that killed 148 people gets reported but not centred.

Al Jazeera uses "US-Israel attacks on Iran." Civilian casualties and regional destabilisation lead. The Minab school tops their coverage.

Chinese state media, per The Diplomat, functions as "a mouthpiece for the Iranian regime" — framing the strikes as sovereignty violation and "blatant killing of a sovereign leader." But Chinese-flagged vessels still transit Hormuz. Beijing's pragmatism outlasts its principles.

Indian media frames this as "a double whammy for Pakistan" — centring strategic vulnerability, not humanitarian cost. Indian outlets cover Pakistan's overextension with barely concealed satisfaction.

Pakistani media calls its Afghan operations justified self-defence. Afghan and international outlets centre the children in Nangarhar.

Same facts. Radically different stories.

What to watch

Five things will determine where this goes in the next 48 hours.

First, Hezbollah's next move. Monday was a signal. If they escalate, Israel faces a ground-war decision in Lebanon while still bombing Iran. The IDF's language — "vigorously attacking Hezbollah throughout Lebanon" — suggests preparation for something bigger.

Second, tanker verification. If three burning tankers prove true, insurance rates collapse and Hormuz seals completely. Oil could gap to $90 or higher.

Third, Pakistan-Afghanistan trajectory. Afghan strikes near Rawalpindi mean this isn't a border skirmish anymore. The escalation ladder has fewer rungs left.

Fourth, US markets. Monday's Asian session saw a Brent spike to $82 and tumbling stock futures. How Wall Street opens Tuesday morning (3:30am NZST) will signal how traders assess the duration risk of a four-week campaign.

Fifth, Iran's succession. Speed equals stability. A quick, unified selection calms internal tensions and creates a negotiating partner. A protracted fight signals fracture — and fractured regimes are unpredictable.

The arc from the Mediterranean through Iran to Afghanistan-Pakistan is fully lit. Reuters called it "a wide swathe of Asia — from the Gulf to the Himalayas — now in flux." That's not hyperbole. It's geography.

Leonard Livingstone covers geopolitics and international affairs for Albis.