Africa's Fuel Crisis Deepens as Iran War Chokes Supply Lines

Zimbabwe's state fuel blender, Petrozim, increased the ethanol content in unleaded petrol from 20% to 35% on April 1, according to a government gazette published in Harare. The move, which the Energy Ministry called "a temporary measure to extend national fuel stocks," came as the country's diesel reserves fell to 11 days of supply, down from 42 days in February.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil transits, has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since U.S. military operations against Iran began on March 15. For African nations that import nearly all their refined fuel, the disruption has triggered cascading shortages.

Country-by-Country Breakdown

In Kenya, pump prices in Nairobi hit 245 Kenyan shillings ($1.89) per litre on Wednesday, a 62% increase since February, according to the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority. Long queues formed at stations across the capital, with some motorists waiting more than four hours, the Daily Nation reported.

Ethiopia's Council of Ministers approved an emergency fuel subsidy of 14.2 billion birr ($230 million) on March 30, according to state broadcaster EBC. The subsidy caps diesel prices at 68 birr per litre, roughly half the market rate. Finance Minister Ahmed Shide told parliament the measure would last "no more than 90 days."

Tanzania's Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority imposed price ceilings on March 28, freezing petrol at 3,400 Tanzanian shillings ($1.29) per litre. Fuel importers warned the cap would lead to shortages within two weeks if global prices continued rising. "We cannot sell below cost indefinitely," Amit Shah, chairman of the Tanzania Oil Marketing Companies Association, told The Citizen newspaper.

Transport and Food Chain Effects

The African Development Bank estimated on Tuesday that transport costs across sub-Saharan Africa have risen 40-80% since the Hormuz closure began, depending on proximity to ports and fuel storage capacity.

In Nigeria, Africa's largest economy, diesel prices hit 1,850 naira ($1.12) per litre in Lagos on April 1, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Haulage companies have imposed fuel surcharges of 30-50% on freight, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce reported, pushing up the cost of food, building materials, and manufactured goods.

"The fuel price is now the food price," said Mma Amara Ekeruche, a research fellow at the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa, in an interview with the BBC's Focus on Africa. "When diesel doubles, everything that moves by truck doubles."

The World Food Programme said on March 31 that its operational costs in East Africa had risen 18% since mid-March, forcing the agency to reduce rations for 2.3 million refugees across Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia.

Strategic Reserve Gaps

Unlike OECD nations, most African countries lack strategic petroleum reserves. South Africa maintains roughly 10 days of commercial stock, according to the South African Petroleum Industry Association. Kenya holds about 14 days. Nigeria, despite being a major crude producer, imports more than 80% of its refined fuel and maintains no formal strategic reserve.

The African Union's energy commissioner, Amani Abou-Zeid, called for an emergency session of the AU's Specialized Technical Committee on Transport, Energy, and Tourism, scheduled for April 10 in Addis Ababa. "African nations must coordinate a collective response," Abou-Zeid said in a statement. "Individual country measures will not be sufficient if this crisis extends beyond April."

Alternative Supply Routes

Some nations are scrambling for workarounds. South Africa's Transnet has increased crude oil shipments from West African producers, particularly Angola and Nigeria, routing tankers around the Cape of Good Hope. But the longer route adds 10-15 days to delivery times and raises shipping costs by approximately $2.50 per barrel, according to shipping analytics firm Vortexa.

India's Reliance Industries offered emergency diesel cargoes to Kenya and Tanzania from its Jamnagar refinery, Reuters reported on April 1, though the shipments would take three weeks to arrive.

The International Energy Agency said in its April market report that African nations face "the most acute supply vulnerability" of any region because of limited refining capacity, low storage, and near-total dependence on seaborne imports. The agency projected that without a resolution to the Hormuz blockade, fuel rationing could affect 600 million people across the continent by the end of April.