Oil, Freight and Fertilizer Put Import-Dependent States on Hunger Edge

Higher oil, shipping and fertilizer costs could push 45 million more people into acute hunger this year if conflict in the Middle East continues, the World Food Programme said, with import-dependent countries in Africa and Asia facing the steepest risks.

WFP said the increase would be on top of 318 million people already facing acute food insecurity in 2026. On its global hunger page, the agency said 363 million people are now at risk of acute hunger this year and described the conflict in the Middle East as a major threat to food security far beyond the region.

The warning is not mainly about wheat fields under fire. WFP said the mechanism is energy. If oil prices stay above $100 a barrel and conflict keeps disrupting shipping, transport costs and global food prices rise together, pricing vulnerable households out of basic diets.

That link is visible in U.S. Energy Information Administration data. EIA said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, forcing Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain to shut in 7.5 million barrels a day of crude production in March. It said the figure would rise to 9.1 million barrels a day in April under current conditions.

EIA said Brent crude averaged $103 a barrel in March and could peak at $115 in the second quarter. It also said reduced flows through Hormuz were raising shipping costs and widening the Brent-WTI spread because Asia-facing seaborne supply was more exposed than inland U.S. crude.

For food systems, the problem does not stop at fuel. WFP said the virtual shipping standstill in Hormuz and rising risks in the Red Sea were already lifting fertilizer and delivery costs. That matters because food markets often absorb energy shocks in stages. Oil can fall in a day on ceasefire headlines. Fertilizer orders missed this month can cut harvests months later.

WFP said sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are most vulnerable because of their reliance on imported food and fuel. Its modeling projected a 24% increase in food insecurity in the Asian countries it assessed, a 21% increase in West and Central Africa, and a 17.7% increase in East and Southern Africa.

The agency gave country examples. Sudan imports around 80% of its wheat, WFP said, making households especially exposed to higher staple costs. In Somalia, local reports cited by WFP showed some essential commodity prices had already risen by at least 20% since the conflict began.

That is where the framing gap opens. In U.S. and European market coverage, the story is often told through crude benchmarks, naval deployments and inflation expectations. In Arab, African and South Asian reporting, it is more often a kitchen story: bread, cooking gas, bus fares, fertilizer bags and shrinking food baskets.

The distinction is not rhetorical. It reflects where the shock lands first. Countries with stronger currencies, larger reserves or food subsidies may be able to cushion the first round. Countries that import fuel, buy grain in dollars and depend on external aid face the pass-through faster.

WFP said the world has seen this pattern before. When the war in Ukraine drove up food and fuel costs in 2022, global hunger climbed to 349 million people. The agency said food prices rose quickly then and came down slowly, leaving poor households priced out of staple foods for extended periods.

This time, WFP said, the conflict involves an energy hub rather than a major breadbasket, but the effect can be similar because energy and food markets are tightly correlated. Transport costs rise. Fertilizer costs rise. Aid deliveries become more expensive. Governments already under fiscal pressure get less room to absorb the shock.

That last point is becoming more urgent because WFP is also dealing with funding shortfalls. The agency said severe financing gaps were forcing it to scale back assistance and prioritize only the gravest needs. If food insecurity rises while aid budgets shrink, more households are pushed into the open space between market prices and humanitarian coverage.

The result can look uneven from one capital to another. In some places, the crisis appears first as a higher import bill. In others, it appears as thinner rations, fewer school meals or a skipped planting season because fertilizer arrived too late or cost too much.

WFP said the next key decision point is whether the conflict eases by mid-year. Its 45 million estimate assumes the fighting persists and oil stays above $100. EIA’s forecast also assumes disruption through April before gradual normalization. If shipping and prices do not stabilize on that timetable, food agencies and import-dependent governments will be dealing with the second-round effects through the next harvest cycle.