Only 11 Ships Crossed Hormuz After Ceasefire as Operators Wait for Clarity

Eleven ships had crossed the Strait of Hormuz by 14:00 BST on April 9 after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, according to BBC Verify, compared with an average of 138 vessels a day before the conflict began on Feb. 28.

That is the clearest measure so far of what the ceasefire has changed and what it has not. On paper, the two-week agreement included a condition that safe passage through the strait would be guaranteed. In practice, shipping remained close to a trickle.

BBC Verify reported that vessels in the area had received messages warning they would be “targeted and destroyed” if they tried to cross without permission. The outlet said its analysis of MarineTraffic data showed only three tankers, one container ship and seven bulk carriers passing through the chokepoint after the ceasefire.

The route those ships used also showed how little confidence had returned. BBC Verify said the vessels tracked through the strait took a northern path close to Iran’s coastline and inside Iranian territorial waters. Before the conflict, ships usually used a more southerly route through the middle of the channel.

Shipping analysts told the BBC that operators still lacked the details needed to resume normal traffic. Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime said most shipping lines would want clear guidance on what was required to transit safely and that those details were not yet available. Ana Subasic of Kpler said it was too soon to tell whether the few crossings reflected a broader ceasefire reopening or a previously approved exception.

The numbers explain why oil and freight markets have not fully trusted the diplomatic headline. A ceasefire can be announced by governments in a single afternoon. Commercial confidence returns more slowly. Owners have to weigh crew safety, insurance, war-risk costs, sanctions exposure and the risk of becoming trapped if the two-week pause collapses.

BBC Verify reported that nearly 800 ships had been stuck in the Gulf for several weeks, citing Lloyd’s List editor Richard Meade. He said the first priority, if traffic resumes, would likely be getting loaded tankers out rather than sending new flows in. Niels Rasmussen of BIMCO said there was unlikely to be a large influx of ships into the Gulf because operators did not want to risk being trapped again after the ceasefire window closed.

The legal uncertainty is almost as important as the military one. BBC Verify said some shipping executives were concerned they might be asked to pay tolls to Iran for safe passage. Shipping lawyer James Turner told the outlet that such payments could breach U.S. sanctions if they were made to a sanctioned person or entity and no exception was granted.

That leaves the global system in an awkward middle state. In Washington, the ceasefire can be presented as a de-escalation that has reopened one of the world’s most important waterways. In Tehran, control over passage remains a lever. In trading rooms and shipping offices, the fact pattern is simpler: a few ships are moving, most are still waiting.

The stakes extend beyond oil tankers. BBC Verify noted that the strait also carries chemicals used to process microchips, pharmaceuticals and fertilizer. A prolonged partial reopening would keep pressure on manufacturing supply chains and food input markets even if crude prices initially fell on the ceasefire news.

Regional framing has already split. Political coverage tends to describe Hormuz as reopened because the ceasefire text refers to safe passage. Operational coverage treats the waterway as still heavily constrained because vessel counts remain far below normal. Both readings capture part of the picture, but only one tells ship captains whether they should sail.

That distinction matters now more than market rhetoric. The real test of the ceasefire is not whether oil dipped for a day. It is whether ship traffic climbs back toward prewar levels without warnings, detours or ad hoc permissions.

The next data points will come quickly. Ship-tracking services, insurers and port operators will show over the coming days whether crossings rise beyond isolated movements or whether Hormuz remains technically open and functionally throttled.