Urea Hits $800 a Ton as Planting Season Opens Without Fertilizer

Urea fertilizer traded at $800 per metric ton on Monday, double the $350 to $400 range it held in late 2025, according to data from Argus Media. The price has not been this high since the aftermath of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The cause is direct. Roughly 30% of global urea trade transits the Strait of Hormuz, shipped from production facilities in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. The strait's effective closure since early March has stranded millions of tons.

"We are looking at the worst fertilizer supply disruption since World War II," said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in a press briefing Monday. "And it is hitting at the worst possible moment."

The Timing Problem

Northern Hemisphere planting season is underway. Farmers in the United States, Europe, India, and China apply the bulk of their nitrogen fertilizer between March and May. Southern Hemisphere producers in Brazil and Argentina are preparing for their next cycle.

The window is biological, not political. Crops planted without adequate nitrogen produce 30% to 50% less grain, according to the International Fertilizer Association. A missed application cannot be made up later in the season.

In India, where 60% of the workforce depends on agriculture, the crisis is acute. Urea is the most widely used fertilizer in the country, with annual consumption exceeding 35 million tons. India imports roughly 30% of its urea, much of it from Oman and Saudi Arabia via Hormuz.

"My cost has doubled but the government procurement price has not moved," said Rajesh Patel, a rice farmer in Gujarat, quoted by Navbharat Times. "If I plant with less fertilizer, I harvest less. If I buy at this price, I lose money either way."

Africa's Exposure

Sub-Saharan Africa imports over 90% of its fertilizer, according to the African Development Bank. The continent's primary suppliers — Morocco for phosphates, and Gulf states for nitrogen-based products — are either constrained or cut off.

L'Économiste Maghrébin reported Monday that more than one million tons of fertilizer remain immobilised in Gulf ports, unable to reach African buyers. The Sahel and Horn of Africa, where subsistence farming dominates, face the steepest consequences.

"Smallholder farmers in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso were already planting with half the recommended fertilizer application rates before this crisis," said Agnes Kalibata, president of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa. "Now many cannot afford any."

The World Food Programme estimates that 55 million people across West Africa will face crisis-level hunger during the June-August lean season. Fertilizer shortages in March and April lock in that outcome months in advance.

The Natural Gas Link

Urea production requires natural gas as both feedstock and energy source. The Hormuz closure disrupted not just finished fertilizer shipments but also the LNG trade that feeds production plants in South and Southeast Asia.

Bangladesh's primary urea plant at Shahjalal cut output by 40% in March due to gas shortages, according to the Bangladesh Fertilizer Association. Pakistan's two largest facilities are operating at reduced capacity.

"This is a double hit," said Oliver Hatfield, vice president at Argus Media. "You lose the imports AND you lose the feedstock to make your own. There is no domestic workaround for most importing countries."

What Changes the Trajectory

Three developments could ease prices. A ceasefire that reopens Hormuz would restore the fastest supply route. Saudi Arabia could increase production at its Ma'aden and SABIC facilities, which hold spare capacity. And the US, which produces urea from abundant natural gas, could redirect export volumes currently contracted to Latin America.

None of these is underway. Saudi Arabia has not announced production increases. US producers are locked into existing contracts. And ceasefire talks between Washington and Tehran collapsed last week.

The FAO's April food price index, due in early May, will be the first to capture the fertilizer shock's downstream effects. Torero said he expects "significant increases across cereals, oilseeds, and dairy."

The last time urea exceeded $800 per ton, in 2022, global food prices rose 14% over the following six months.