Brent at $118 as Fuel Shock Spreads From Tankers to Households

Brent crude finished the first quarter at $118 a barrel after starting the year at $61, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which said the rise was the largest quarterly increase on an inflation-adjusted basis since its data series began in 1988.

The agency said prices accelerated after military action in the Middle East on Feb. 28 and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic slowed sharply because of attacks and the risk of further damage to vessels. The EIA said Brent moved above $100 on March 12 and kept rising through the rest of the month.

That market move is no longer confined to trading screens. The EIA said the U.S. average retail gasoline price reached $3.99 a gallon on March 30, while diesel hit $5.40, the highest in real terms in more than two years. Distillate prices rose faster than gasoline, the agency said, because disrupted Middle East exports tightened supply for diesel and jet fuel more severely.

In Britain, the pressure has shown up in forecourts first. The BBC reported that Brent had jumped from about $73 to more than $110 since the war began, and cited analysts saying each $10 rise in crude adds roughly 7 pence a litre to pump prices after a lag of about two weeks.

RAC data cited by the BBC showed average petrol prices at 157.02 pence a litre and diesel at 189.42 pence on April 7. The broadcaster said filling a typical family car with petrol now costs more than 13 pounds more than before the conflict, while a tank of diesel costs about 26 pounds more.

The inflation channel runs beyond the pump. The BBC said higher diesel prices are increasing transport costs for businesses moving goods around the country, and analysts told the broadcaster that some crude-derived inputs also feed into fertiliser prices. That means the same shipping disruption that lifted tanker insurance and freight costs is starting to reach food supply chains.

That household-first framing has been more visible outside U.S. and European diplomatic coverage. The April 8 Albis scan found Arabic and Japanese coverage stressing civilian vulnerability, oil and gas access, while Spanish and Hindi reporting tracked the crisis through food, freight and farm costs. English-language political reporting has focused more heavily on military posture and state responses.

The EIA said the spread between Brent and West Texas Intermediate widened to as much as $25 a barrel on March 31, reflecting stronger exposure for Brent-linked markets to disrupted shipping near Hormuz. U.S. inventories and plans for releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve helped limit the rise in WTI, according to the agency.

That divergence matters for importers. Countries that buy crude and refined products at global prices can avoid immediate shortages if they hold stocks, but they cannot insulate consumers from a sustained jump in transport and fuel costs. Britain’s fuel industry told the BBC supplies remained resilient, yet the same report said regulators were already investigating claims of price gouging by retailers.

The first visible signs of an energy shock often appear in petrol stations, but diesel and jet fuel can drive a broader pass-through because they shape freight, heating and aviation costs. The EIA said strong trucking demand, cold weather in the U.S. Northeast and reduced renewable diesel supply all tightened distillate markets at the same time as Middle East exports were disrupted.

In Gulf capitals, the story remains about war and shipping lanes. In London and other importing economies, it is turning into a question of grocery bills, delivery charges and how long governments can absorb the blow. The next test will come in April inflation readings and in whether shipping flows through Hormuz stabilize enough to ease pressure on refined fuel markets.