El Niño Odds Rise for Mid-2026, Adding New Pressure to Food and Water Systems

NEW YORK/GENEVA — The probability of El Niño rises above ENSO-neutral conditions from May-July 2026 and stays between 72% and 80% in later overlapping seasons, according to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society's March forecast.

IRI said ENSO-neutral conditions remained the most likely outcome for April-June at 53%, but El Niño probabilities were already close behind at 47%. The institute said the equatorial Pacific had weakened from La Niña levels toward neutral by mid-March.

The World Meteorological Organization said in its February update that ENSO monitoring remained crucial for governments, humanitarian agencies and policymakers because the phenomenon shapes rainfall, heat and seasonal risk patterns worldwide.

Those statements do not amount to a disaster warning on their own. They do, though, place a new climate risk behind food and water systems that are already under pressure from conflict, shipping disruption and higher energy costs.

That is why the same forecast is being read differently in different places. In meteorological coverage in the United States and Europe, the discussion has centered on whether a strong or even "super" El Niño could emerge later in the year. In farm and food reporting across Asia, Latin America and parts of Africa, the more practical issue is what a hotter and less stable weather pattern would do to planting, irrigation and staple prices.

IRI said El Niño events typically develop during April to June, peak between October and February and often persist for nine to 12 months. Those timelines matter because they overlap with the second half of the global growing year and with seasonal rainfall patterns that many countries use for food planning.

The institute said the observed sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region was minus 0.45 degrees Celsius in December-February 2026 and minus 0.20 degrees Celsius in February 2026, with the most recent weekly average at 0.0 degrees. Those readings indicated the earlier La Niña had weakened to neutral conditions.

The forecast also underlined uncertainty. IRI said human forecasters and model-based assessments can differ, and it noted that some of the divergence comes from model bias, timing and differences in the datasets used for real-time analysis and official diagnosis.

That caution is important because El Niño does not produce the same effect everywhere. It can bring drought to some crop regions, flood risk to others and wide shifts in heat, fisheries and water storage.

What has changed this year is the background condition into which that risk could arrive. UNCTAD said this week that the Middle East conflict and Hormuz shipping disruption were already pushing up trade costs and inflation. The daily scans reviewed by Albis also show food and fertilizer concerns widening across the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia.

In that context, climate risk is not a separate story. A stronger El Niño later in 2026 would arrive in a system already dealing with expensive fuel, fragile transport routes and thinner fiscal buffers.

That same layering appears in regional framing. Western climate coverage has emphasized the possibility of a record event and the effect on hurricane and temperature outlooks. In countries where food inflation is already politically sensitive, the focus is narrower: whether water, crop timing and import bills will deteriorate together.

WMO said its updates are designed to help meteorological services refine regional predictions. That is where the next phase of the story will move, from basin-wide probabilities to local rainfall and crop guidance.

For now, the forecast signal is clear enough to matter but not precise enough to lock in outcomes. Neutral conditions still dominate in the near term, while El Niño becomes more likely from mid-2026 onward.

The next benchmark will come with updated ENSO outlooks over the next several weeks. Those runs will show whether the current rise in El Niño probabilities strengthens further, levels off or reverses before governments and food agencies make second-half planning decisions.