Hormuz Remains Choked Even as Oil Falls, and WFP Warns 45 Million More Could Go Hungry

Brent crude averaged $103 a barrel in March, up $32 from February, and daily prices touched almost $128 on April 2 after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to shipping traffic, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The headline oil move has since reversed sharply. The slower shock has not. The World Food Programme said the Middle East conflict could push 45 million more people into acute hunger in 53 countries this year, taking the total facing acute food insecurity to as many as 363 million.

EIA said nearly 20% of global oil supply moves through Hormuz and that the waterway has remained effectively closed to normal shipping since military action began on Feb. 28. The agency said oil production shut-ins in the Middle East averaged 7.5 million barrels a day in March and were expected to rise to 9.1 million barrels a day in April before easing.

The agency also said it now expects Brent to average $115 a barrel in the second quarter, even though it assumes the conflict does not last beyond April. Traffic through the strait, EIA said, is not expected to return to pre-conflict levels until late 2026.

That timeline matters more than the latest futures print. WFP said its model tracks how higher global energy prices pass through to domestic prices, cutting food access for households that were already barely able to afford a minimal diet before the conflict.

In trading hubs, the story has been the speed of the oil unwind. In Gulf coverage, the question has been whether ships can move and at what insurance cost. In food-importing states, the issue is what happens after fuel, freight and fertilizer costs feed into the next planting cycle and then the next market day.

WFP said the projected increase in acute hunger comes from the conflict’s impact on energy markets rather than crop failure alone. That makes fertilizer a central part of the chain. The deep-investigation brief assembled for this cycle showed urea prices remained elevated even as oil retreated, a sign that farm input stress is not moving in lockstep with crude benchmarks.

That gap is one reason aid agencies and agricultural economists watch shipping conditions as closely as ceasefire language. A tanker delay can become a fertilizer delay. A fertilizer delay can become lower application rates, weaker yields and higher local food prices months after the front pages move on.

EIA said its forecast includes releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and strategic stock releases announced by the International Energy Agency. Those steps can cushion the immediate oil shock. They do not reopen a sea lane, clear tanker backlogs or erase the risk premium that shipping and commodity buyers price into future contracts.

The agency also cut its assumption for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 0.6 million barrels a day from 1.2 million, saying governments were moving to reduce fuel use and shortages were curbing refined product exports. The adjustment points to a wider pattern: states can force demand down faster than they can restore normal trade flows.

The burden is uneven. Gulf states and energy traders can measure the disruption in freight rates and physical cargo delays. Asian importers must watch crude supplies and fertilizer bills at the same time. In lower-income countries already tracked by WFP for crisis hunger, households feel the shock in cooking fuel, transport costs and staple prices long before any official famine declaration.

The ceasefire diplomacy now under discussion may settle the direction of oil prices for the next few weeks. The food effect will turn on slower variables: whether Hormuz traffic normalizes, whether fertilizer shipments resume on reliable schedules, and whether governments still have the fiscal room to absorb another imported price wave.

WFP said its projection applies if the conflict continues through the second quarter of this year. EIA said it assumes flows through Hormuz will only gradually resume. Those two timelines now set the next test for energy markets, aid budgets and food prices heading into the second half of 2026.