Week Two Begins: Iran Has No Air Force, Trump Wants Surrender, and Oil Just Had Its Wildest Week Since 1983

Fifty Israeli jets dropped roughly 100 bombs on Ayatollah Khamenei's underground bunker in Tehran on Friday. He was already dead — killed in the opening strikes on February 28 — but senior Iranian officials had been using the reinforced complex as an emergency command centre. The IDF destroyed it anyway.

That strike captures where this war stands entering week two. Iran's supreme leader is gone. Its air force is gone. Eighty percent of its air defences are gone. And the man running the campaign from Washington just posted two words that slammed the door on diplomacy: "unconditional surrender."

The surrender demand

Trump's Truth Social post on Friday was the broadest expansion of war aims since Operation Epic Fury began. "There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" he wrote. The White House later clarified that when Iran "no longer poses a threat" and Epic Fury's goals are met, it would effectively be in a state of surrender.

The New York Times called it a shift that "could portend a much longer war." Hours later, Iran's President Pezeshkian told reporters "some countries have begun mediation efforts" — the first diplomatic signal since the bombing started. An Iranian official told DropSite News those efforts had been rejected. Tehran's position: no talks under fire, no negotiations until a new supreme leader is named.

Two frames, incompatible. Washington says surrender. Tehran says not while you're bombing us.

The military picture

The numbers tell a stark story. The IDF claims 2,500 strikes in eight days. CENTCOM hit roughly 200 targets in the past 72 hours alone. On Friday, 400 targets were struck in western Iran — ballistic missile launchers, drone storage, IRGC infrastructure.

Iran's 23rd wave of retaliatory strikes hit Israel overnight. IRGC rockets still reach Tel Aviv. But the trend line is brutal: ballistic missile launches are down 90% from day one, drone attacks down 83%. CENTCOM has sunk or struck more than 20 Iranian naval vessels. Iran's ability to hit back is degrading faster than it can replenish.

The CSIS think tank priced the first 100 hours of Epic Fury at $3.7 billion — $891 million per day, $3.5 billion of it unbudgeted. The US House voted 219-212 against halting the war or requiring Congressional authorisation. A narrow margin that could narrow further if the economic costs keep climbing.

The Kurdish front nobody expected

A Reuters exclusive on Thursday revealed that Israel has been bombing western Iran specifically to support Kurdish militia ground operations. PJAK fighters — thousands of them — launched a ground offensive into Iranian territory from Iraq on March 2. They're taking positions around Marivan in Kurdistan Province, seizing border posts.

Trump endorsed the offensive. "All for it," he said on March 5.

This changes everything. Epic Fury was an air campaign. Now it has a ground dimension — not American or Israeli boots, but Kurdish ones. If PJAK holds Iranian territory, this stops being a bombing campaign and starts looking like partition. Iranian state media is already calling it "Zionist-backed separatism."

Oil's wildest week in 40 years

Brent crude closed Friday at $92.69 per barrel. The weekly gain — 28% for Brent, over 35% for WTI — is the largest in futures trading history since 1983.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. No oil shipments passed through in the past 24 hours. The near-total halt is entering its seventh day. Kuwait started cutting production because it ran out of storage. Iraq shut down 1.5 million barrels per day. JPMorgan warned that production cuts could approach 6 million barrels per day by the end of next week if the strait stays closed.

Qatar's energy minister said oil could hit $150.

Here's what may matter most: China's negotiating directly with Iran for safe passage through Hormuz. Reuters reported active talks to let crude oil and Qatari LNG vessels through. If Beijing secures that deal, it creates a two-tier shipping system — Chinese-flagged vessels pass, everyone else waits. China, not the US Navy, becomes the guarantor of energy flow through the world's most critical chokepoint.

That's not a shipping deal. That's a power shift.

The squeeze on Pakistan

Three thousand kilometres east of Tehran, a connected crisis is compounding. Pakistan is now fighting a two-week-old war with Afghanistan while absorbing the economic shockwave from Hormuz's closure.

Friday was the deadliest day of the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict. Both sides launched multiple cross-border strikes. UN displacement figures jumped from 66,000 to over 100,000 in a matter of days. The UN Human Rights chief reported 56 Afghan civilians killed since hostilities intensified — nearly half of them children.

Pakistan hiked petrol prices by PKR 55 per litre in a single increase. Stations are rationing fuel or shutting down. Scuffles broke out at pumps in multiple cities. The government is considering COVID-era measures — work from home, distance learning — to conserve what it has. Times of India reported Pakistan holds roughly 26 days of fuel reserves.

The connection between these two wars isn't abstract. Pakistan's defence minister warned last week that regime change in Iran could align Tehran, India, and Afghanistan against Islamabad — "turning Pakistan into a vassal state surrounded by enemies on all sides." Pakistan's mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, signed in September 2025, could theoretically drag it into the Iran war if Riyadh invokes the pact.

A country fighting one war, 26 days from running out of fuel, bound by treaty to potentially enter another. Pakistan is the most dangerous pressure point in this entire crisis.

The succession clock

Iran's Assembly of Experts — 88 senior clerics — must choose Khamenei's successor. The frontrunner is his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, backed by the IRGC. Trump said Friday he intends to play a "direct role" in selecting Iran's next leader and called Mojtaba "unacceptable."

Tehran's position is that no negotiations can happen until a new supreme leader is named. But the Assembly of Experts' office in Qom was struck during an electoral session on March 3. Whether that was intentional targeting or not, it physically disrupted the one process Iran says must conclude before diplomacy can begin.

The interim leadership council — President Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Mohseni-Eje'i, Guardian Council head Arafi — is holding the state together. Pezeshkian called Putin on Friday and thanked him for Russia's solidarity. Moscow is providing intelligence to help Iran target US forces, according to the Washington Post. But Russian boots on the ground remain off the table.

The American home front

February's US jobs report landed like a grenade: negative 92,000 jobs. Worst miss in months. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. Third job loss in five months — and this is pre-war data. March will be worse.

Gas prices jumped 27 cents in a single week to $3.25 per gallon. If oil breaks $100 — plausible if Hormuz stays closed — those prices climb fast. The political timeline that ends this war may not be military. It may be a gas pump in Ohio.

What comes next

Three variables will shape the coming days. First, the China-Hormuz negotiations. If Beijing secures safe passage, oil might cap around $95. If it fails, $100 by Monday is likely. Second, the Kurdish ground offensive. If PJAK holds Iranian territory, this conflict changes category entirely. Third, the succession. A hardliner as supreme leader means escalation. A pragmatist opens a narrow window for talks — but that window shrinks with every day of bombing.

The war is eight days old. It has already killed over 1,332 Iranians, closed the world's most important oil passage, triggered the biggest crude price spike in four decades, and opened a ground front nobody planned for. Week two starts with no off-ramp in sight.