India cuts 2026 monsoon forecast to below normal

Published by Albis · 30 May 2026

India’s weather agency has revised its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast down to 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% chance of deficient rainfall and warnings of hotter June conditions

• • A weaker monsoon forecast matters globally because India's rainfall pattern affects food output, water storage, power demand and commodity expectations.
• • Capacity and infrastructure bottleneck.
• • The revision places the 2026 monsoon in the below-normal category.
• • The monsoon season runs from June to September and is measured against the long-period average, a rainfall benchmark based on data from 1971 to 2020.