India cuts 2026 monsoon forecast to below normal

Last updated May 30, 2026

India’s weather agency has revised its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast down to 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% chance of deficient rainfall and warnings of hotter June conditions

• A weaker monsoon forecast matters globally because India's rainfall pattern affects food output, water storage, power demand and commodity expectations.
• Capacity and infrastructure bottleneck.
• The revision places the 2026 monsoon in the below-normal category.
• The monsoon season runs from June to September and is measured against the long-period average, a rainfall benchmark based on data from 1971 to 2020.
• Down To Earth gives the LPA as around 868.6 mm, while Manorama Yearbook gives it as 87 cm.

Still unclear: What local readers are seeing from the ground

Based only on supplied evidence from Down To Earth, Manorama Yearbook, DD News excerpt and PGurus. El Niño linkage, agriculture, reservoir and food-inflation impacts are attributed where sourced and treated as risks where the packet does not provide direct measurements.