First Ships Cross Hormuz Since War Began — But 20% of World Oil Stays Blocked

The LNG carrier Shinshu Maru, flagged in Japan, and the French container vessel CMA CGM Thalassa transited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday morning local time, according to ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic and confirmation from the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

They were the first commercial ships to complete the passage since Iran effectively sealed the strait on March 3, five days into Operation Epic Fury. Forty-five vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, 32 of them carrying energy cargo, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence.

The transits were permitted, not forced. Iran's navy escorted both ships through a narrow corridor on the Omani side, according to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, which described the passage as "a humanitarian gesture consistent with Iran's commitment to freedom of navigation for non-belligerent states."

A Trickle, Not a Flow

Under normal conditions, roughly 21 million barrels of oil and 15 percent of the world's LNG pass through Hormuz daily. Friday's transit moved one LNG cargo and one container ship.

"This changes nothing about the physical supply picture," said Jorge León, senior vice president at Rystad Energy, in an emailed note. "You need 50 to 60 tankers per day to normalise crude flows. Two ships is a photo opportunity."

Brent crude spot closed Friday at $138.20, down from the week's high of $141.37 but still at levels not seen since 2008. Futures for June delivery traded at $112.40, a contango gap of $25.80 per barrel — reflecting the market's bet that the blockade will ease but hasn't yet.

Tokyo Exhales, Briefly

Japan gets 73.7 percent of its crude oil and 28 percent of its LNG through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy. The Shinshu Maru carried approximately 70,000 tonnes of Qatari LNG — enough to power Japan's electrical grid for about six hours.

Japanese Prime Minister Yamamoto Taro described the transit as "a welcome first step" but said the government was not lifting its energy conservation advisory. Japan has released 80 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves since mid-March, drawing down stocks that took 45 years to accumulate.

NHK led its Friday evening broadcast with the Hormuz crossing. Tokyo Shimbun ran a front-page graphic showing Japan's remaining strategic reserves and the burn rate at current consumption — 147 days, down from 227 days at the start of the war.

Paris Claims a Win

French President Marine Le Pen posted on X that the CMA CGM Thalassa's transit demonstrated "France's capacity to protect its commercial interests in the world's most contested waterway." The French Navy frigate Languedoc provided escort through the Gulf of Oman to the strait's western approach.

CMA CGM, the world's third-largest shipping line and a French company, confirmed the transit but declined to say whether it had negotiated directly with Iranian authorities. The company said it was "evaluating conditions for regular service resumption" on its Asia-Europe route through the Suez Canal and Hormuz.

40-Nation Talks Stall

The transit came a day after 40 nations held emergency consultations in London on reopening the strait, chaired by UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy. The United States was represented but, according to diplomats briefed on the talks who spoke to the Financial Times, blocked any proposal that included pausing military operations as a precondition.

Trump told reporters at the White House that nations struggling with the blockade should "just take it back" — a reference to military enforcement of strait passage. "We have the ships, we have the planes. Somebody explain to me why we're asking permission."

Iran's latest ceasefire conditions, reported by CNN on Thursday citing two Iranian officials, included a full US withdrawal from Iraqi airspace and the lifting of pre-war sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The State Department called the demands "unserious."

What 45 Trapped Ships Mean

The 45 vessels still inside the Gulf include 18 crude tankers, eight LNG carriers, four chemical tankers and two grain bulkers, according to Lloyd's List. Their combined cargo is valued at approximately $4.2 billion.

Crews aboard the trapped ships — an estimated 1,100 seafarers — have been confined for more than four weeks. The International Transport Workers' Federation called Friday for immediate crew-change operations, citing reports of dwindling food supplies and medical needs on several vessels.

Insurance premiums for Gulf-bound shipping remain at war-risk levels. The Joint War Committee of Lloyd's Market Association still lists the entire Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman as a listed area, meaning premiums of 2 to 5 percent of hull value per transit — up from 0.1 percent before the war.

Two ships made it through. The math says the crisis is far from over.